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Earth’s Warming & Cooling Phases Result of 1,470-Year Solar Cycle

By Jack Phillips

It is a little known fact that in 1996 three scientists, Willi Dansgaard of Denmark, Hans Oeschger of Switzerland and Claude Lorius of France, won the Tyler Prize—equivalent to a Nobel in environmental science—for discovering a 1500+/-500 year temperature cycle in Earth’s weather which has more recently been linked to changes in solar radiation.

Evidence of this cycle was found in ice cores from Greenland’s ice cap and confirmed by similar evidence found in cores from the Antarctic ice cap. The ice cores indicate that a nominal 1470-year cycle has dominated Earth’s weather during the last 11,000 years, since the last ice age.

Information from other sources shows that the cycle has influenced Earth temperatures for at least 900,000 years.

There is no doubt that this cycle exists, but its connection to variations in solar activity could not be proven until satellite observations of the Sun became possible. Viewed from Earth small variations in the Sun are obscured by atmospheric effects. In November of 2001 George Bond et al., from Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, reported in Science that satellite data showed that the Earth’s climate and solar activity had been linked for 32,000 years.

Holier Braun determined by computer studies that two well known Sun cycles, 87 and 210 years long, generated a 1,470-year cycle by computer studies.

It is now a well-established theory

that the effects of relatively tiny variations in the Sun’s radiation are amplified primarily by cosmic rays. The solar wind protects the Earth, to some extent, from cosmic rays coming from the rest of the universe. When it decreases in intensity, as a result of diminished solar activity, more cosmic rays hit the atmosphere, ionize air molecules and form nuclei for water droplets. These produce clouds which reflect solar radiation back into space cooling the Earth.

The IPCC’s computers are unable to account for this important cloud effect which raises doubts about the validity of the results of their calculations.

Secondarily, increasing activity of the Sun results in more ultraviolet radiation which causes more ozone to form from oxygen in the air. This ozone absorbs nearultraviolet radiation increasing the temperature of the atmosphere and warming the Earth. Calculations indicate that a 0.1% change in solar radiation can cause a 2% change in ozone concentration which affects temperature and air circulation.

S. Fred Singer and Dennis T. Avery in their book Unstoppable GlobalWarming note that this proven close linkage between the irradiance of the Sun and Earth’s weather contrasts with the largely unproven thesis that increasing CO2 concentrations are causing global warming.

Their observation that 240,000 years of ice core data show CO2 concentrations increasing after Earth’s temperature increases, and not before, is impressive. So also is the reported lag time of 800 years. Could it be that the sea, which holds a great deal of the Earth’s CO2, releases some of its store when ocean temperatures rise? Man’s contribution to CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere may not be important after all.

Jack Phillips is a writer who lives in Massachusetts. He has a degree in chemical engineering, is an emeritus member of the American Chemical Society and is a member of the society of Sigma Xi. He is also the author of Suppressed Science ($16) published by AFP, 645 Pennsylvania Avenue SE, #100, Washington, D.C. 20003. Call 1-888-699-NEWS to charge a copy.

(Issue #38 & 39, September 17 & 24, 2007)

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Updated September 14, 2007